Creating Futures

WISE: Waikato integrated scenario explorer

The Waikato Integrated Scenario Explorer (WISE) is a dynamic, spatially-explicit computer simulation model that assesses the effects and trade-offs of alternative future development scenarios or the consequences of policy options.

It spatially integrates economic, demographic, environmental (climate, hydrology, water quality, biodiversity) and land use (suitability, accessibility, local influence, zoning) information to undertake these asessments.

The full use of WISE as a scenario tool is currently under review pending central governments proposed 2026 local government reform with further detail on the manner and type of scenario planning regions may do under the new regional planning system.

In the interim the latest 2023 WISE projections for land use, population, household, employment and economic projections are available on this website.

WISE

WISE helps us see how today’s choices shape tomorrow’s Waikato. Learn how this modelling tool supports better decision‑making for our environment, economy, and communities.

Waikato projections

Our Waikato Projections provide a clear picture of how people, jobs, and land use might shift across the region. Learn how these consistent, evidence‑based forecasts guide better planning for every district and community.

Historical case studies

Our case studies show how WISE is used to explore possible futures for the Waikato and test the impact of different choices. Take a look at how this work supports smarter policy, planning, and decision‑making across the region.

Resources

Explore a range of WISE and Creating Futures resources, including user training, publications, and presentations. Find reports and materials that help you better understand the tools and research behind our regional planning work.

Key assumptions in reference scenario

The Reference Scenario is set up in WISE Version 1.7 to represent the modelled projections of population and economic growth for the Region and the current policies and plans that influence growth and land use development. Establishing this Reference set up required a number of assumptions to be made. An overview of the key assumptions made in the Reference Scenario and results are reported in:

Updates

The updated Waikato Projections 2023-2073 based on the 2023 census have been completed. These projections provide modelled future projections for social (population, households, labour force) and economic (value add, employment by sector) indicators based on most up to date social, economic and land use data... (e.g. 2023 census outputs, current district plan zoning, latest economic data).

These projections provide a robust and consistent set of data for policy and planning across the Waikato Region. Projections are provided for three different growth scenarios (low, medium and high).

The 2018 Waikato Projections are available to view and download.
An upgrade of the WISE model has recently been undertaken.

Following on from improvements in V1.6 the new version (V1.7) features a number of other improvements. These include:

New modelling start date of 2023 and includes an updates starting land use map for
Up-to-date zoning and growth strategy information for the regional territorial authorities
A new population model and updated economic model
Updated population projection data, economic data, and future roading networks
Increased functionality with a new indicators tool.
The model update is progressing well and Version1.6 is expected to be available for download by end of 2021.

The updated WISE has been used to support the development of the 2018 Waikato Projections.
A spatial layer (raster) of land use across the Waikato Region in 2023 has been developed. This layer will be a key part of the update of the WIS model to V1.7

The previous 2018 land use layer was derived based on an analysis of several data set including: Land Cover Database (LCDB4), Regional Property Valuation database, and Agribase. A validation process of initial land use outputs was undertaken with staff from the regional territorial authorities.

The 2023 land use layer is a key part of the WISE update to V1.7. It allows the new version to have a modelling starting date of 2023.
Current work is looking at a comparison of WISE with Land Care Research NZLUM v0.4 2026 land use maps

Creating Futures : WISE