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  Services » Publications » Technical reports - by year » tr201137

Strategic assessment of the impacts of climate change on the Waikato region

On this page: Abstract, table of contents

Report: TR 2011/37

Author: Y Li, L Storey, W Ye and JF Bornman (University of Waikato)

Abstract

Climate change will modify average climate and climate variability, thereby modifying the frequency and intensity of existing risks and hazards, as well as introducing some long-term shifts in climate regimes across New Zealand (MfE, 2008; IPCC, 2007b).

Local government agencies are responsible for a range of functions that may be affected by climate change. For regional councils, these functions  include management of regional water and land resources, biosecurity, natural hazards management, emergency management, and regional land transport. Local authorities own community assets that may be vulnerable to climate change effects (MfE, 2008).

Based on this recognition, Waikato Regional Council requested a strategic assessment of the impacts of climate change on the Waikato region. The results in this assessment are intended to show the broad patterns of change for the region both in terms of
projections of spatially-explicit climate changes and climate variability and extremes. They are also intended to provide strategic information that is relevant to planning adaptation strategies for the region.

Strategic assessment of the impacts of climate change on the Waikato region (2 mb)

Table of contents

  Executive summary 2
  Table of contents 4
  List of figures 5
  List of tables 7
  Glossary 8
1 Introduction 10
2 Baseline and future climate changes in the Waikato region 12
2.1 Mean temperature and precipitation changes 14
2.1.1 Introduction 14
2.1.2 Methodology and data 15
2.1.3 Results 15
2.1.4 Discussion and conclusions 21
2.2 Extreme precipitation and change 22
2.2.1 Introduction 22
2.2.2 Methodology and data 22
2.2.3 Results 23
2.2.4 Discussion and conclusions 27
2.3 Peak streamflow change 27
2.3.1 Introduction 27
2.3.2 Methodology and data 27
2.3.3 Results 29
2.3.4 Discussion and conclusions 30
2.4 Potential evaporation deficit (PED) 31
2.4.1 Introduction 31
2.4.2 Methodology and data 31
2.4.3 Results 31
2.4.4 Discussion and conclusions 35
2.5 Temperature-humidity index (THI) 36
2.5.1 Introduction 36
2.5.2 Methodology and data 36
2.5.3 Results 37
2.5.4 Discussion and conclusions 40
2.6 Growing degree days (GDD) 41
2.6.1 Introduction 41
2.6.2 Methodology and data 41
2.6.3 Results 41
2.6.4 Discussion and conclusions 44
2.7 Sea level rise 44
2.7.1 Introduction 44
2.7.2 Methodology and data 44
2.7.3 Results 44
2.7.4 Discussion and conclusions 46
3 Conclusions 46
4 Recommendations and future research direction 48
5 Appendices 54
  Appendix 1: Pattern scaling methodology 54
  Appendix 2: SRES emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2000) 55
  Appendix 3: Methodology for extreme precipitation event analysis based on daily GCM data 56
   Appendix 4: Computation of the potential evapotranspiration deficit (PED) 60
  Appendix 5: Calculation of the temperature humidity index (THI) 61
  Appendix 6: Methodology for generating sea level rise patterns 61
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